I’m not a big fan of new year resolutions but I’m definitely guilty of making some on new year’s eve and forgetting about them the next day. As today marks the end of 2021 and this is my last post of the year, I feel the itch to do the same thing again. This time round, I’ve decided to make only one simple resolution, to wit: be agile enough to improvise and do not over plan.

Throughout the year of 2021, I reckon there are two most frequently asked questions.

1. When will the Covid-19 crisis end and when can we be back to normal again?
2. When is the next general election?

I’ve met quite a number of people who gave their answers in a very sophisticated manner (or at least they tried) but very often, the more sophisticated it sounds, the further it is from the truth. When I began writing this blog during the first lockdown, I guessed that this Covid-19 crisis would be a temporary thing, perhaps lasting 6 months. Then came Delta variant, Lambda, Omicron etc and we went through so many dizzying rounds of lockdowns and opening up, coupled with nauseating government actions. Some of the measures even defied logic and none of us could have anticipated that.

Talking about elections, we went through the change of Prime Ministers again and several rounds of State Elections with many frogs jumping around. Nowadays there are so many moving parts in our politics that you simply cannot make any judgement or anticipate any political outcome if you try to be logical. But then what should you rely on if not simple logic?

The correct answers to the above questions should be “Nobody knows”. In fact, I don’t think you need to bother about the right answers. It’s impossible to get the answers anyway. What is more important is to adapt and improvise according to the changing environment. At the beginning of the Covid-19 crisis, some business owners decided to defer their major plans until the crisis is over. Then they realised they should just fuck it and do it, because the problem doesn’t seem to be going away anytime soon. Similarly, if you want to wait for political stability then I wish you have enough patience to enjoy the long wait.

The older I get, the more I’m convinced that I no longer need a 5 year plan for myself because I don’t think I can realistically plan ahead even for six months. The only place you will find a 5 year plan useful is probably the “Career Progression” column on the employee evaluation form. It’s sad but I’ve seen some people waste so much time enthusiastically filling up all the pie-in-the-sky bullshit.

Our economy is being hit by Covid-19 on the back of serious political instability. It’s like being hit by a bullet and the doctor who is supposed to save you is drunk at the same time. Instead of helping the economy, some of the haphazard government policies just confused the shit out of us. The biggest lesson I’ve observed is that we need to stop hoping for certainty and start working with uncertainty. In other words, it’s better to rely on ourselves than relying on certain environment. Malaysians are generally quite resilient when it comes to this and I’m particularly proud to see this among the small medium enterprises (SME). Some businesses diversify their income streams into e-commerce while some just closed down and started in new fields. Most business owners I know have this mentality that they have not and will never rely on the government. Nowadays they can’t be bothered when will the borders open or when will everything be fully opened up. What they care is how to survive and change their business model to suit the current situation. Just look at the F&B industry, if they cannot fit as many people in their restaurants as before, they try to do more takeaways or frozen meals. If they have worker shortage, they introduce self-ordering an self-payment via QR code on each table. To be honest, I really don’t think they would have planned for all these measures in their 5 Year Corporate Masterplan few years ago, even if they really have one.

What about the election? Do I still care? Of course I care, but not really on timing. I care about who runs the country and how the policies support our long term prosperity. Right now, what we see is almost all politicians are being intoxicated by a bonanza of plundering. Just look at the massive flood and how the politicians made a fool of themselves by holding brooms in front of cameras. Can you imagine they still believe in these 1980s public relation stunts when everyone in this era has smart phone cameras capturing all the behind-the-scene mockery. Instead of launching speedy rescue effort, they are more proficient in playing blame game and ditching half-baked consolation goodies after being slammed from all angles.

To me, inflation is one of the biggest nightmares coming up and it is likely to be driven by supply side factors. It’s already there, just look at food prices, construction materials, logistics cost etc. What worries me is we don’t have a stable and efficient government to combat this while we are trying to survive the Covid-19 impact. It just seems to me that most people in position of power are busy raising fund for the upcoming election. Sad but true.

I think enough said about 2021, what about 2022? In my humble opinion, I still don’t see any light in the tunnel when it comes to cyclical industries and industries that have significant regulatory risks. I’m optimistic when it comes to retail, hospitality, food production, logistics, healthcare and wellness among others. Let’s pray for a better Malaysia in 2022.